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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
VP.Prodigywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Gothic- · 13 games
15%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
onLiTaL · 13 games
15%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Gothic- · 12 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 12 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 10 games
10%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 10 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 10 games
10%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Gothic- · 10 games
20%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 20 games
40%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 18 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 14 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 14 games
50%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 13 games
85%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 12 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
597 picks · 814 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
534 picks · 551 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
431 picks · 396 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
427 picks · 298 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1022 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 662 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 590 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 517 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)16% vs 47%
Hero pool strength67% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total79% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:26
Natus Vincere Junior 32%VP.Prodigy 68%
The model gave 68% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasteronLiTaL
48% · 381 game59% · 302 games
Bristlebacktakizawa
Bristleback
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkrol9ash
37% · 136 games51% · 393 games
PuckSerenada
Puck
Earthshaker
Earthshakergbc
48% · 158 games55% · 207 games
Muertacutie
Muerta
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterGothic-
45% · 93 games60% · 76 games
Treant ProtectorJANTER
Treant Protector
Jakiro
JakiroHyugadoto
45% · 629 games55% · 419 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct13:31
Natus Vincere Junior 33%VP.Prodigy 67%
The model gave 67% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 35:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskaronLiTaL
52% · 117 games50% · 87 games
Kezcutie
Kez
Bristleback
Bristlebackkrol9ash
55% · 323 games54% · 176 games
Doomtakizawa
Doom
Tiny
Tinygbc
46% · 539 games55% · 111 games
RazorSerenada
Razor
Dazzle
DazzleHyugadoto
47% · 147 games47% · 457 games
Tuskraregods
Tusk
Marci
MarciGothic-
47% · 219 games47% · 514 games
JakiroJANTER
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 79%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2