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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winter Bearwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 11 games
27%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Gothic- · 9 games
22%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 8 games
13%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 8 games
13%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 8 games
13%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 7 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 7 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gbc · 7 games
14%

Winter Bear

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 3 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Sand King
Sand King
Panda · 3 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
560 picks · 691 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
508 picks · 340 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 665 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 536 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
422 picks · 146 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
403 picks · 192 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 519 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 510 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 42%
Hero pool strength64% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Natus Vincere Junior 51%Winter Bear 49%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Game 2prediction missed
Natus Vincere Junior 51%Winter Bear 49%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 51%
Series resultWinter Bear 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2