PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 3:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 3:2
1w Teamloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 21 game
Disruptor
Riddys · 17 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 16 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 14 games
Tiny
Copy · 14 games
Magnussignature
BOOM · 13 games
Svensignature
gotthejuice · 12 games
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 25 games
Warlocksignature
kasane · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 15 games
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
Pugnasignature
kasane · 14 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
455 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
454 picks · 232 bans
Puck
357 picks · 948 bans
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
Warlock
303 picks · 150 bans
Tusk
297 picks · 226 bans
Batrider
286 picks · 654 bans
Nature's Prophet
286 picks · 670 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:8
Natus Vincere 63%1w Team 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svengotthejuice
MorphlingMunkushi~
Bristlebackpma
PuckSquad1x
Monkey KingNiku
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
DazzleRiddys
Snapfireswedenstrong
BaneZayac
Elder Titankasane
Game 2prediction correct37:18
Natus Vincere 65%1w Team 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassingotthejuice
SvenMunkushi~
Bristlebackpma
LeshracSquad1x
Monkey KingNiku
Sand KingSSS
Shadow DemonZayac
Warlockkasane
SnapfireRiddys
Baneswedenstrong
Game 3prediction missed16:38
Natus Vincere 65%1w Team 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 1w Team in 43:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassingotthejuice
AbaddonMunkushi~
Earthshakerpma
TimbersawSSS
PuckNiku
Queen of PainSquad1x
JakiroRiddys
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
DisruptorZayac
Naga Sirenkasane
Game 4prediction missed27:34
Natus Vincere 64%1w Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 1w Team in 52:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
LifestealerMunkushi~
Queen of PainNiku
TimbersawSSS
Monkey Kingpma
LeshracSquad1x
SnapfireZayac
Tinyswedenstrong
DisruptorRiddys
Banekasane
Game 5prediction correct18:5
Natus Vincere 66%1w Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 20:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmothergotthejuice
Queen of PainSquad1x
HuskarNiku
SlardarSSS
Marcipma
LifestealerMunkushi~
SnapfireZayac
Jakirokasane
DazzleRiddys
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 75%
Series resultNatus Vincere 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5