?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 19 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
QBFY · 12 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Zayac · 11 games
55%
Lion
Lion
QBFY · 10 games
40%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 10 games
60%

4Pirates

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 14 games
36%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 10 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
500 picks · 671 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
475 picks · 409 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
466 picks · 592 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
462 picks · 569 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 523 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
429 picks · 796 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
417 picks · 939 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:33
Natus Vincere 65%4Pirates 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 49:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackBOOM
55% · 136 games44% · 43 games
LycanOtaker
Lycan
Monkey King
Monkey KingShad
51% · 116 games47% · 125 games
LinaNattyNarwhal
Lina
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
51% · 131 game52% · 321 game
Primal Beastмистер мораль
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
48% · 164 games48% · 45 games
WarlockPERDAN4IK
Warlock
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKaori
55% · 137 games48% · 150 games
Nyx Assassinariel
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct43:33
Natus Vincere 64%4Pirates 36%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 46:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackShad
58% · 233 games51% · 318 games
GyrocopterOtaker
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSancity
52% · 279 games44% · 42 games
Bloodseekerмистер мораль
Bloodseeker
Enigma
EnigmaBOOM
55% · 186 games45% · 394 games
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskQBFY
49% · 307 games43% · 187 games
Dawnbreakerariel
Dawnbreaker
Muerta
MuertaKaori
48% · 274 games53% · 338 games
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct25:11
Natus Vincere 63%4Pirates 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
47% · 405 games52% · 318 games
BristlebackOtaker
Bristleback
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSancity
47% · 371 game47% · 408 games
Timbersawмистер мораль
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBOOM
47% · 252 games56% · 224 games
InvokerNattyNarwhal
Invoker
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
49% · 295 games52% · 575 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQBFY
51% · 299 games52% · 97 games
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 75%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3