ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
9Pandaswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 12 games
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 8 games
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 8 games
Svensignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
Pugnasignature
Malady · 7 games
Void Spiritsignature
mellojul · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Malik · 6 games
9Pandas
Doomsignature
MieRo · 33 games
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 32 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 30 games
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
Rubick
Antares · 24 games
Windranger
kiyotaka · 23 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
228 picks · 264 bans
Dark Willow
227 picks · 106 bans
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
193 picks · 413 bans
Phoenix
193 picks · 250 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 409 bans
Earth Spirit
174 picks · 277 bans
Earthshaker
172 picks · 173 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 37%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:38
Natus Vincere 52%9Pandas 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 45:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaShigetsu
SpectreV-Tune
Night StalkerNefrit
Naga SirenRAMZES666
Kunkkamellojul
Zeuskiyotaka
Ancient ApparitionMalady
TuskAfoninje
MuertaDaze
GrimstrokeRodjER
Game 2prediction correct
Natus Vincere 47%9Pandas 53%
The model gave 53% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas.
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 53%
Series result9Pandas 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2