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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 18 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Copy · 15 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 14 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 12 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
73%

Aurora Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 35 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 34 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 28 games
61%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Panto · 25 games
76%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 22 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
336 picks · 315 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
328 picks · 815 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
287 picks · 143 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
282 picks · 315 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 766 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
272 picks · 248 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
265 picks · 120 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total65% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:21
Natus Vincere 43%Aurora Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 42:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmothergotthejuice
52% · 66 games41% · 145 games
AbaddonNightfall
Abaddon
Monkey King
Monkey KingNiku
59% · 265 games50% · 156 games
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Mars
Marspma
53% · 184 games47% · 308 games
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
Pangolier
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
51% · 210 games48% · 150 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Disruptor
DisruptorZayac
51% · 163 games47% · 129 games
BanePanto
Bane
Game 2prediction correct10:22
Natus Vincere 45%Aurora Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
57% · 250 games45% · 112 games
AbaddonNightfall
Abaddon
Invoker
InvokerNiku
48% · 167 games48% · 208 games
Dragon Knightkiyotaka
Dragon Knight
Tidehunter
Tidehunterpma
52% · 96 games49% · 122 games
MarciTORONTOTOKYO
Marci
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRiddys
53% · 111 games48% · 128 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneZayac
59% · 97 games42% · 151 game
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed25:11
Natus Vincere 42%Aurora Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmothergotthejuice
47% · 18 games52% · 96 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
61% · 207 games42% · 111 games
Leshrackiyotaka
Leshrac
Monkey King
Monkey KingNiku
56% · 201 game50% · 109 games
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
Centaur Warrunner
Dazzle
DazzleRiddys
46% · 52 games43% · 100 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Bane
BaneZayac
53% · 83 games44% · 145 games
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 65%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3