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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AVULUSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 20 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 17 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 16 games
56%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 14 games
79%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Sancity · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zayac · 12 games
58%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 30 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 30 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 28 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 26 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 25 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 23 games
52%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 21 game
76%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 674 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 493 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 536 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
354 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
336 picks · 446 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 513 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
306 picks · 332 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
306 picks · 597 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:41
Natus Vincere 40%AVULUS 60%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 29:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsBOOM
50% · 201 game56% · 198 games
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSancity
43% · 81 game53% · 102 games
ViperStormstormer
Viper
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightShad
40% · 235 games63% · 168 games
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
48% · 267 games55% · 119 games
Nyx AssassinEkki
Nyx Assassin
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
41% · 172 games51% · 369 games
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct27:24
Natus Vincere 41%AVULUS 59%
The model gave 59% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
44% · 229 games53% · 138 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
51% · 181 game55% · 213 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Sand King
Sand KingBOOM
53% · 161 game52% · 346 games
Primal BeastXibbe
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickQBFY
43% · 255 games46% · 171 game
PugnaSoNNeikO
Pugna
Batrider
BatriderKaori
50% · 347 games51% · 305 games
LionEkki
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 63%
Series resultAVULUS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2