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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ban9PivoSamogonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zayac · 17 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 14 games
43%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Sancity · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
77%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%

Ban9PivoSamogon

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
435 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
406 picks · 544 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
363 picks · 460 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
362 picks · 190 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
354 picks · 373 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 586 bans
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
344 picks · 549 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
338 picks · 374 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:15
Natus Vincere 80%Ban9PivoSamogon 20%
The model gave 80% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 28:34.
Game 2prediction correct26:16
Natus Vincere 80%Ban9PivoSamogon 20%
The model gave 80% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 35:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 80%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2