DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlock
Riddys · 31 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 22 games
Marsoften banned
pma · 21 game
Grimstroke
Riddys · 20 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 20 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 20 games
Jakiro
Riddys · 19 games
Underlordsignature
pma · 19 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Jakiro
Kataomi · 37 games
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 36 games
Tusksignature
Kataomi · 28 games
Muertaoften banned
Save- · 24 games
Windrangersignature
Save- · 23 games
Beastmastersignature
gpK~ · 21 game
Slardaroften banned
gpK~ · 21 game
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
518 picks · 311 bans
Phoenix
487 picks · 577 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 355 bans
Jakiro
402 picks · 302 bans
Rubick
379 picks · 205 bans
Tusk
349 picks · 307 bans
Puck
338 picks · 856 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 849 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total73% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:24
Natus Vincere 39%BETBOOM TEAM 61%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 48:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursagotthejuice
SnapfiregpK~
KezNiku
LifestealerKiritych
Axepma
MarsMieRo
PhoenixRiddys
Winter WyvernKataomi
Shadow DemonDaze
HoodwinkSave-
Game 2prediction missed31:17
Natus Vincere 37%BETBOOM TEAM 63%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
NecrophosKiritych
Keeper of the LightNiku
Storm SpiritgpK~
Axepma
DawnbreakerMieRo
PhoenixRiddys
HoodwinkSave-
LionDaze
Winter WyvernKataomi
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 73%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2