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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Solo · 10 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
V-Tune · 8 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 8 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 7 games
43%

BOOM Esports

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 22 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 21 game
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 19 games
68%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 19 games
84%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 17 games
76%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 16 games
81%
Bane
Bane
Skem · 14 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
680 picks · 486 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
476 picks · 976 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
389 picks · 493 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
374 picks · 191 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
353 picks · 672 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 551 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
305 picks · 420 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
304 picks · 628 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:24
Natus Vincere 31%BOOM Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 27:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingV-Tune
53% · 353 games46% · 157 games
Chaos KnightJaCkky
Chaos Knight
Batrider
BatriderNo[o]ne
45% · 170 games52% · 216 games
Storm SpiritYopaj
Storm Spirit
Razor
Razorlaise
49% · 262 games49% · 499 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
49% · 93 games58% · 211 games
MiranaTims
Mirana
Snapfire
SnapfireSolo
48% · 362 games52% · 157 games
Winter WyvernSkem
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct32:42
Natus Vincere 33%BOOM Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:00:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetV-Tune
57% · 156 games53% · 159 games
Monkey KingJaCkky
Monkey King
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNo[o]ne
50% · 234 games45% · 98 games
TidehunterFbz
Tidehunter
Doom
Doomlaise
52% · 199 games44% · 156 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
60% · 189 games49% · 311 games
TinyTims
Tiny
Dazzle
DazzleSolo
46% · 76 games44% · 130 games
ViperSkem
Viper
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 80%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2