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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 20 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 17 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 16 games
56%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 14 games
79%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Sancity · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 11 games
64%

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 21 game
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Matthew · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 17 games
82%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 17 games
71%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 15 games
80%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 15 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
416 picks · 492 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 534 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
351 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
336 picks · 446 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 504 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 595 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
303 picks · 655 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:22
Natus Vincere 47%BOOM Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightShad
51% · 101 game50% · 82 games
MedusaJaCkky
Medusa
Magnus
MagnusBOOM
55% · 262 games44% · 227 games
BatriderMac
Batrider
Monkey King
Monkey KingSancity
54% · 185 games45% · 152 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKaori
66% · 33 games43% · 194 games
MorphlingJaunuel
Morphling
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
50% · 314 games50% · 240 games
RubickTims
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed27:28
Natus Vincere 43%BOOM Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 52:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSancity
49% · 69 games44% · 124 games
BristlebackJaCkky
Bristleback
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
48% · 192 games48% · 100 games
UnderlordFbz
Underlord
Sand King
Sand KingBOOM
51% · 154 games49% · 141 game
Earth SpiritMac
Earth Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
55% · 216 games52% · 292 games
EnchantressJaunuel
Enchantress
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
56% · 202 games47% · 176 games
MuertaTims
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 61%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2