Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CIS Rejectswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Spirit Breakeroften banned
GeneRaL · 14 games
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 13 games
Silencersignature
Solo · 12 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 11 games
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 11 games
Weaveroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 11 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
V-Tune · 10 games
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 9 games
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
438 picks · 276 bans
Mars
426 picks · 571 bans
Tiny
389 picks · 453 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 736 bans
Sand King
328 picks · 449 bans
Ember Spirit
319 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
284 picks · 428 bans
Storm Spirit
284 picks · 418 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% CIS Rejects
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:2
Natus Vincere 42%CIS Rejects 58%
The model gave 58% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 25:45.
Game 2prediction correct12:43
Natus Vincere 42%CIS Rejects 58%
The model gave 58% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 34:28.
Game 3prediction correct27:37
Natus Vincere 42%CIS Rejects 58%
The model gave 58% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 45:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 58%
Series resultCIS Rejects 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3