Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Darksidewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Clockwerk
swedenstrong · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 8 games
Marcioften banned
swedenstrong · 8 games
Snapfire
swedenstrong · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
laise · 8 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Solo · 7 games
Darkside
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 337 bans
Tusk
336 picks · 327 bans
Mirana
220 picks · 228 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 144 bans
Pangolier
201 picks · 533 bans
Leshrac
196 picks · 422 bans
Snapfire
195 picks · 108 bans
Rubick
193 picks · 150 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Darkside
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:7
Natus Vincere 67%Darkside 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 28:16.
Game 2prediction missed15:23
Natus Vincere 67%Darkside 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Darkside in 40:36.
Game 3prediction missed13:26
Natus Vincere 67%Darkside 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Darkside in 41:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 67%
Series resultDarkside 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3