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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 1:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Execrationloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 25 games
52%
Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
68%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 19 games
79%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
74%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 27 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 23 games
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 18 games
61%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 15 games
40%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Shanks · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
783 picks · 357 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
585 picks · 584 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
573 picks · 301 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
484 picks · 310 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 563 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
473 picks · 268 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
462 picks · 752 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 1115 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:13
Natus Vincere 61%Execration 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursagotthejuice
56% · 332 games50% · 362 games
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNiku
52% · 491 game49% · 424 games
PangolierTino-
Pangolier
Mars
Marspma
48% · 363 games49% · 210 games
SlardarBob
Slardar
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
49% · 399 games46% · 395 games
Snapfirecml
Snapfire
Bane
BaneZayac
56% · 253 games46% · 447 games
TuskShanks
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 67%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1