PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 22 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
Bristlebacksignature
pma · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Niku · 16 games
GamerLegion
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 2 games
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Jakiro
Bignum · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
RCY · 2 games
Snapfire
Bignum · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
YamSun · 2 games
Axeoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
755 picks · 354 bans
Disruptor
608 picks · 626 bans
Hoodwink
544 picks · 299 bans
Tusk
449 picks · 268 bans
Dragon Knight
448 picks · 501 bans
Puck
442 picks · 1179 bans
Mars
438 picks · 725 bans
Jakiro
398 picks · 256 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:12
Natus Vincere 76%GamerLegion 24%
The model gave 76% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Storm SpiritRCY
ViperNiku
MarciYamSun
Centaur Warrunnerpma
AxeFayde
ChenZayac
JakiroSpeeed
RingmasterRiddys
Bounty HunterBignum
Game 2prediction correct20:22
Natus Vincere 77%GamerLegion 23%
The model gave 77% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassingotthejuice
MarciYamSun
PuckNiku
Ember SpiritRCY
Centaur Warrunnerpma
MarsFayde
JakiroRiddys
SnapfireSpeeed
BaneZayac
Shadow DemonBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 91%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2