DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Disruptor
Riddys · 30 games
Warlock
Riddys · 30 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
Marsoften banned
pma · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
GamerLegion
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 17 games
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 16 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 14 games
Warlock
Speeed · 13 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 11 games
Batridersignature
Speeed · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
624 picks · 960 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 432 bans
Centaur Warrunner
462 picks · 629 bans
Shadow Demon
438 picks · 984 bans
Tiny
428 picks · 467 bans
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 516 bans
Warlock
418 picks · 259 bans
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 662 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:12
Natus Vincere 66%GamerLegion 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windrangergotthejuice
ViperRCY
Bristlebackpma
KezYamSun
PuckNiku
SlardarFayde
JakiroRiddys
TechiesSpeeed
HoodwinkZayac
Shadow ShamanBignum
Game 2prediction correct28:17
Natus Vincere 66%GamerLegion 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
ViperRCY
Largopma
SvenYamSun
PuckNiku
Night StalkerFayde
ClockwerkZayac
JakiroSpeeed
WarlockRiddys
Shadow ShamanBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 80%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2