BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Heroicwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Disruptor
Riddys · 28 games
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 17 games
Heroic
Tusk
Scofield · 30 games
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 29 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 20 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 19 games
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 18 games
Leshracsignature
Wisper · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
609 picks · 940 bans
Tusk
535 picks · 438 bans
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 643 bans
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 645 bans
Shadow Demon
440 picks · 961 bans
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 655 bans
Mars
392 picks · 537 bans
Warlock
386 picks · 236 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total71% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:31
Natus Vincere 61%Heroic 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Heroic in 58:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkzgotthejuice
UrsaYuma
Void SpiritNiku
TidehunterWisper
Slardarpma
TinyTaiLung
Shadow DemonZayac
DazzleKJ
DisruptorRiddys
JakiroThiolicor
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 71%
Series resultHeroic 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1