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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 14 games
64%
Lion
Lion
Zayac · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 14 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
58%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
Zayac · 11 games
27%

Kalmychata

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
40%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
antoha · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
xsvampire · 4 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Actor · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hina · 3 games
33%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 600 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 380 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
352 picks · 135 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
341 picks · 452 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 353 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
311 picks · 159 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
309 picks · 576 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
306 picks · 588 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:25
Natus Vincere 66%Kalmychata 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSancity
46% · 55 games48% · 43 games
Shadow FiendNattyNarwhal
Shadow Fiend
Windranger
WindrangerYuragi
54% · 97 games56% · 169 games
WeaverRetsu
Weaver
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
54% · 166 games55% · 61 game
UnderlordAfterLife
Underlord
Phoenix
PhoenixMalady
39% · 156 games52% · 82 games
Elder Titanantoha
Elder Titan
Snapfire
SnapfireZayac
48% · 77 games47% · 196 games
Lionxsvampire
Lion
Game 2prediction correct35:14
Natus Vincere 68%Kalmychata 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 27:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSancity
49% · 246 games51% · 281 game
MarsAfterLife
Mars
Morphling
MorphlingYuragi
49% · 260 games52% · 28 games
Phantom AssassinRetsu
Phantom Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
52% · 337 games47% · 234 games
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
Timbersaw
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
47% · 195 games52% · 335 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Marci
MarciMalady
57% · 104 games46% · 264 games
Phoenixantoha
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 80%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2