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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Klim Sani4win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lion
xsvampire · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Malady · 11 games
27%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
mellojul · 10 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Malik · 7 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 7 games
71%

Klim Sani4

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
314 picks · 462 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
278 picks · 414 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
266 picks · 445 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
245 picks · 219 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
242 picks · 136 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
234 picks · 676 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
233 picks · 326 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
232 picks · 216 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:20
Natus Vincere 51%Klim Sani4 49%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 26:34.
Game 2prediction correct44:15
Natus Vincere 51%Klim Sani4 49%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 46:33.
Game 3prediction missed13:23
Natus Vincere 51%Klim Sani4 49%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 35:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 51%
Series resultKlim Sani4 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3