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EPL Masters II · BO5
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 3:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Klim Sani4loss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Kez
Kezsignature
Niku · 19 games
63%
Axe
Axesignature
pma · 18 games
89%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Daze · 18 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
60%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 15 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Niku · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 11 games
55%

Klim Sani4

Windranger
Windrangersignature
swedenstrong · 11 games
73%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
swedenstrong · 10 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Rein · 10 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 9 games
89%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 8 games
75%
Lycan
Lycansignature
mangekyou · 8 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
swedenstrong · 7 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
swedenstrong · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
468 picks · 307 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 498 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
302 picks · 359 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
301 picks · 422 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
293 picks · 110 bans
52%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
289 picks · 611 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
286 picks · 121 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
272 picks · 290 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 77%
Hero pool strength54% Klim Sani4
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:38
Natus Vincere 61%Klim Sani4 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 50:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladegotthejuice
50% · 111 games51% · 81 game
Lone Druid423
Lone Druid
Huskar
HuskarNiku
54% · 73 games57% · 161 game
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
Keeper of the Light
Axe
Axepma
46% · 190 games49% · 83 games
Enigmamangekyou
Enigma
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
47% · 470 games55% · 186 games
UndyingRein
Undying
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRiddys
48% · 45 games46% · 378 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct26:11
Natus Vincere 61%Klim Sani4 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezgotthejuice
50% · 262 games52% · 303 games
Shadow Fiend423
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
42% · 269 games52% · 397 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
54% · 405 games54% · 210 games
Doommangekyou
Doom
Rubick
RubickDaze
49% · 270 games49% · 372 games
Windrangerswedenstrong
Windranger
Mirana
MiranaRiddys
52% · 127 games43% · 51 game
Witch DoctorRein
Witch Doctor
Game 3prediction correct24:18
Natus Vincere 59%Klim Sani4 41%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 29:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
53% · 296 games58% · 71 game
Lone Druid423
Lone Druid
Enigma
Enigmapma
49% · 119 games47% · 66 games
HuskarSquad1x
Huskar
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
54% · 419 games53% · 348 games
Centaur Warrunnermangekyou
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
39% · 274 games47% · 191 game
UndyingRein
Undying
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRiddys
42% · 77 games55% · 509 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 72%
Series resultNatus Vincere 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3