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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 14 games
64%
Lion
Lion
Zayac · 14 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 12 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
Zayac · 11 games
27%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 25 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 20 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 20 games
40%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
OneJey · 15 games
27%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 683 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
431 picks · 198 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
398 picks · 557 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 419 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
355 picks · 608 bans
47%
Rubick
Rubick
355 picks · 168 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
338 picks · 868 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 645 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:30
Natus Vincere 54%HULIGANI 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 50:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuragi
46% · 200 games52% · 151 game
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lifestealer
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
44% · 52 games54% · 154 games
BrewmasterBb3px
Brewmaster
Tiny
TinySancity
46% · 252 games52% · 227 games
Storm Spiritre1bl
Storm Spirit
Silencer
SilencerMalady
39% · 54 games61% · 204 games
ClockwerkPanto
Clockwerk
Rubick
RubickZayac
46% · 252 games55% · 74 games
MuertaOneJey
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct38:17
Natus Vincere 58%HULIGANI 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
42% · 133 games38% · 32 games
Chaos Knightv1olent-
Chaos Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNefrit
56% · 146 games48% · 114 games
BeastmasterBb3px
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinySancity
53% · 247 games50% · 110 games
Phoenixre1bl
Phoenix
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
57% · 3 games49% · 231 game
RubickPanto
Rubick
Lich
LichMalady
57% · 35 games53% · 77 games
WeaverOneJey
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 61%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2