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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Zayac · 14 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
QBFY · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Zayac · 11 games
55%
Lion
Lion
QBFY · 10 games
40%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 10 games
60%

HULIGANI

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 22 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 21 game
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 19 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 19 games
63%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 16 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mirage · 16 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
519 picks · 700 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 560 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
477 picks · 601 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
477 picks · 404 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
461 picks · 562 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
437 picks · 795 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
433 picks · 957 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 231 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total59% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:3
Natus Vincere 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerShad
43% · 50 games43% · 90 games
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
Phantom Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBOOM
50% · 112 games49% · 28 games
AbaddonAlberkaaa
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSancity
45% · 256 games51% · 341 game
Tinyxn丶e
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockKaori
56% · 35 games62% · 38 games
RikiAntares
Riki
Muerta
MuertaQBFY
51% · 203 games57% · 159 games
PugnaRESPECT
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct22:3
Natus Vincere 54%HULIGANI 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 27:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
48% · 449 games50% · 166 games
Razorv1olent-
Razor
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
51% · 261 game44% · 212 games
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
Dawnbreaker
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
51% · 253 games47% · 444 games
Tinyxn丶e
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockKaori
56% · 48 games53% · 383 games
ClockwerkAntares
Clockwerk
Muerta
MuertaQBFY
47% · 313 games54% · 119 games
Elder TitanRESPECT
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 59%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2