?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 24 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 24 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 21 game
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Daze · 20 games
55%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Niku · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
pma · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 18 games
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 17 games
47%

HULIGANI

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 42 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 33 games
79%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Corrupted · 32 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RESPECT · 30 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
sayuw · 29 games
69%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 26 games
54%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
ssnovv1 · 25 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
631 picks · 444 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
600 picks · 343 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
445 picks · 648 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
431 picks · 507 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
396 picks · 352 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 496 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
337 picks · 384 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
314 picks · 976 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:36
Natus Vincere 54%HULIGANI 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:03:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinygotthejuice
39% · 392 games51% · 70 games
Drow Rangerssnovv1
Drow Ranger
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
49% · 102 games51% · 433 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
52% · 357 games53% · 311 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Techies
TechiesDaze
48% · 100 games58% · 148 games
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Keeper of the Light
Ringmaster
RingmasterRiddys
46% · 249 games55% · 238 games
BaneRESPECT
Bane
Game 2prediction correct24:6
Natus Vincere 57%HULIGANI 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetgotthejuice
56% · 210 games49% · 263 games
UnderlordCorrupted
Underlord
Huskar
HuskarNiku
61% · 121 game44% · 369 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
51% · 355 games39% · 107 games
Lifestealerssnovv1
Lifestealer
Techies
TechiesRiddys
51% · 161 game50% · 452 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskDaze
52% · 526 games45% · 182 games
ClockwerkRESPECT
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed20:21
Natus Vincere 57%HULIGANI 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 42:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetgotthejuice
57% · 216 games51% · 271 game
Shadow Fiendssnovv1
Shadow Fiend
Lycan
Lycanpma
50% · 133 games49% · 367 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Kez
KezNiku
50% · 205 games51% · 362 games
BeastmasterCorrupted
Beastmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
53% · 498 games44% · 158 games
Techiessayuw
Techies
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRiddys
51% · 223 games44% · 117 games
UndyingRESPECT
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 65%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3