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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Daze · 24 games
63%
Kez
Kezsignature
Niku · 23 games
70%
Axe
Axesignature
pma · 21 game
81%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Daze · 20 games
65%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 17 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 15 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Niku · 12 games
75%

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 30 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KJ · 22 games
55%
Bane
Banesignature
KJ · 20 games
60%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 17 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 13 games
69%
Windranger
Windranger
Thiolicor · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
489 picks · 295 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
372 picks · 164 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
361 picks · 160 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 482 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
303 picks · 305 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
294 picks · 274 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 475 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
271 picks · 368 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:27
Natus Vincere 62%LGD Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancergotthejuice
55% · 27 games55% · 125 games
Lone DruidWits
Lone Druid
Timbersaw
Timbersawpma
46% · 132 games50% · 293 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
55% · 200 games39% · 257 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
55% · 380 games54% · 127 games
GrimstrokeThiolicor
Grimstroke
Bane
BaneRiddys
53% · 118 games38% · 55 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct27:6
Natus Vincere 62%LGD Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
44% · 86 games52% · 245 games
WindrangerWits
Windranger
Doom
Doompma
53% · 175 games50% · 138 games
TimbersawDavai
Timbersaw
Invoker
InvokerNiku
48% · 127 games41% · 9 games
Outworld DestroyerSumaiL
Outworld Destroyer
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRiddys
51% · 74 games45% · 143 games
Dark WillowThiolicor
Dark Willow
Rubick
RubickDaze
48% · 202 games58% · 129 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Game 3prediction missed38:36
Natus Vincere 63%LGD Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 54:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
45% · 94 games51% · 149 games
DoomWits
Doom
Lina
LinaNiku
51% · 82 games51% · 105 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Axe
Axepma
49% · 189 games55% · 182 games
Earth SpiritSumaiL
Earth Spirit
Mirana
MiranaRiddys
51% · 151 game47% · 148 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskDaze
53% · 296 games46% · 228 games
RubickThiolicor
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 68%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3