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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Matreshka Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 17 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 15 games
47%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 9 games
33%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Malady · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Malady · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 7 games
29%

Matreshka Team

Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 9 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 8 games
63%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Retsu · 8 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Lagoona · 6 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Lagoona · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 5 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 5 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
731 picks · 545 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
601 picks · 519 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
558 picks · 1096 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
557 picks · 1255 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
521 picks · 578 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
472 picks · 937 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
467 picks · 1083 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
454 picks · 651 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:8
Natus Vincere 59%Matreshka Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 28:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaShigetsu
52% · 32 games53% · 143 games
Templar AssassinRetsu
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
49% · 298 games53% · 347 games
DoommeLes
Doom
Pangolier
Pangoliermellojul
47% · 309 games54% · 113 games
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
Queen of Pain
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightxsvampire
49% · 195 games53% · 111 games
Shadow DemonLagoona
Shadow Demon
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMalady
42% · 139 games51% · 259 games
Techiesdark
Techies
Game 2prediction correct42:11
Natus Vincere 62%Matreshka Team 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
51% · 153 games42% · 69 games
WindrangerRetsu
Windranger
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
53% · 75 games50% · 137 games
TimbersawmeLes
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritmellojul
54% · 214 games45% · 139 games
PuckNattyNarwhal
Puck
Pugna
PugnaMalady
51% · 158 games54% · 164 games
EnchantressLagoona
Enchantress
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritxsvampire
47% · 54 games49% · 145 games
Silencerdark
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 72%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2