Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Mind Gamesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Spirit Breaker
GeneRaL · 12 games
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 11 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
V-Tune · 9 games
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 8 games
Weaveroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
GeneRaL · 7 games
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
500 picks · 433 bans
Mars
456 picks · 684 bans
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 535 bans
Bane
407 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 592 bans
Storm Spirit
348 picks · 569 bans
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 643 bans
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 622 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 35%
Hero pool strength52% Mind Games
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:39
Natus Vincere 55%Mind Games 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Mind Games in 51:34.
Game 2prediction correct26:19
Natus Vincere 55%Mind Games 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:25.
Game 3prediction correct23:13
Natus Vincere 55%Mind Games 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 55%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3