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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 24 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Riddys · 21 game
62%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 19 games
58%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Riddys · 17 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 16 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
gotthejuice · 15 games
53%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 62 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 47 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 44 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 37 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 37 games
68%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 32 games
66%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Crystallis · 32 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
560 picks · 683 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
510 picks · 340 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
480 picks · 662 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 533 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
423 picks · 146 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
403 picks · 194 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 516 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 509 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total57% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:27
Natus Vincere 47%MOUZ 53%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
48% · 350 games52% · 383 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
55% · 337 games55% · 42 games
ClinkzCrystallis
Clinkz
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightpma
47% · 320 games46% · 622 games
TinyMidOne
Tiny
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
60% · 143 games51% · 219 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZayac
43% · 195 games44% · 79 games
Skywrath Mageyamich
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct34:25
Natus Vincere 50%MOUZ 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 56:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzgotthejuice
65% · 25 games43% · 21 game
TinkerMidOne
Tinker
Viper
ViperNiku
49% · 54 games49% · 200 games
TinyCrystallis
Tiny
Underlord
Underlordpma
50% · 105 games44% · 82 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRiddys
54% · 215 games55% · 109 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Lion
LionZayac
53% · 93 games39% · 80 games
Dark Willowyamich
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct18:25
Natus Vincere 45%MOUZ 55%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzgotthejuice
51% · 43 games52% · 279 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNiku
46% · 264 games48% · 146 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Primal Beast
Primal Beastpma
52% · 197 games50% · 219 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
45% · 396 games55% · 179 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Lion
LionZayac
47% · 101 game57% · 178 games
Shadow Demonyamich
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 57%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3