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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Zayac · 14 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Shad · 13 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
QBFY · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Zayac · 11 games
55%
Lion
Lion
QBFY · 10 games
40%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 10 games
60%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 31 game
65%
Lich
Lichsignature
Riddys · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 27 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 25 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
77%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 22 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
532 picks · 728 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
494 picks · 576 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
488 picks · 612 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
483 picks · 411 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
477 picks · 577 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
447 picks · 802 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
444 picks · 979 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
401 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 70%
Hero pool strength58% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:29
Natus Vincere 39%Natus Vincere Junior 61%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 51:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackShad
54% · 237 games52% · 323 games
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomBOOM
53% · 311 games48% · 110 games
EarthshakerNiku
Earthshaker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSancity
47% · 237 games48% · 358 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
49% · 294 games52% · 308 games
Shadow DemonZayac
Shadow Demon
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterQBFY
48% · 49 games47% · 29 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed34:9
Natus Vincere 37%Natus Vincere Junior 63%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinShad
46% · 130 games57% · 427 games
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinySancity
49% · 353 games54% · 329 games
MagnusNiku
Magnus
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBOOM
45% · 186 games56% · 148 games
Sand Kingpma
Sand King
Batrider
BatriderKaori
43% · 315 games59% · 64 games
RikiZayac
Riki
Muerta
MuertaQBFY
44% · 233 games49% · 249 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 68%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2