ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 9 games
Clockwerk
Solo · 7 games
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 7 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 6 games
Lifestealersignature
V-Tune · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 5 games
Nemiga Gaming
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 16 games
Death Prophetoften banned
VANSKOR · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 14 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
VANSKOR · 12 games
Rubick
Heaven · 11 games
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
626 picks · 470 bans
Puck
438 picks · 941 bans
Snapfire
363 picks · 189 bans
Dawnbreaker
356 picks · 416 bans
Mars
356 picks · 587 bans
Dragon Knight
336 picks · 457 bans
Bane
315 picks · 196 bans
Marci
306 picks · 617 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:16
Natus Vincere 43%Nemiga Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 24:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaV-Tune
PuckMalr1ne
Dawnbreakerlaise
JuggernautKiritych
Night StalkerNo[o]ne
Treant ProtectorCorrupted
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
ZeusHellscream
Nyx AssassinSolo
Dazzleso bad
Game 2prediction missed
Natus Vincere 40%Nemiga Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 60%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2