?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
swedenstrong · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
swedenstrong · 11 games
18%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
V-Tune · 10 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
nicky`cool · 10 games
60%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Solo · 10 games
50%
Visage
Visagesignature
laise · 10 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
swedenstrong · 9 games
11%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
laise · 8 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 9 games
67%
Silencer
Silencersignature
so bad · 8 games
75%
Techies
Techies
Hellscream · 8 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
88%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Malr1ne · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
398 picks · 392 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
360 picks · 363 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
347 picks · 239 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
285 picks · 292 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
226 picks · 271 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
218 picks · 115 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 147 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
193 picks · 531 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:46
Natus Vincere 54%Nemiga Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaV-Tune
52% · 150 games54% · 145 games
Chaos KnightKiritych
Chaos Knight
Leshrac
Leshracnicky`cool
53% · 165 games47% · 159 games
BatriderMalr1ne
Batrider
Primal Beast
Primal Beastlaise
49% · 108 games45% · 285 games
SnapfireCorrupted
Snapfire
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
48% · 257 games52% · 168 games
Treant ProtectorHellscream
Treant Protector
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMalady
49% · 222 games50% · 145 games
Disruptorso bad
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct10:24
Natus Vincere 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaV-Tune
42% · 61 game45% · 122 games
Nature's ProphetKiritych
Nature's Prophet
Death Prophet
Death Prophetnicky`cool
44% · 253 games51% · 151 game
LeshracMalr1ne
Leshrac
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerlaise
62% · 26 games60% · 79 games
Primal BeastCorrupted
Primal Beast
Snapfire
Snapfireswedenstrong
43% · 299 games53% · 265 games
RubickHellscream
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMalady
54% · 168 games53% · 190 games
Undyingso bad
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 54%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2