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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 16 games
56%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 8 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 7 games
57%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Malady · 6 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Malady · 6 games
67%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
so bad · 13 games
85%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
v1olent- · 13 games
85%
Doom
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Hellscream · 11 games
45%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Corrupted · 10 games
60%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Hellscream · 10 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
549 picks · 586 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
460 picks · 227 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
419 picks · 763 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 669 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
361 picks · 362 bans
48%
Morphling
Morphling
338 picks · 714 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
332 picks · 814 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
331 picks · 707 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total56% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:11
Natus Vincere 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 24:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShigetsu
40% · 39 games39% · 56 games
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritmellojul
53% · 279 games54% · 381 game
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
56% · 231 game49% · 149 games
MarsCorrupted
Mars
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMalady
51% · 148 games49% · 130 games
PhoenixRodjER
Phoenix
Lion
Lionxsvampire
39% · 48 games58% · 29 games
Vengeful SpiritHellscream
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction missed29:18
Natus Vincere 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 42:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverShigetsu
43% · 13 games52% · 92 games
Bloodseekerv1olent-
Bloodseeker
Tidehunter
TidehunterMalik
44% · 82 games49% · 51 game
DawnbreakerCorrupted
Dawnbreaker
Primal Beast
Primal Beastmellojul
53% · 119 games46% · 85 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMalady
57% · 81 game48% · 76 games
Skywrath MageHellscream
Skywrath Mage
Lion
Lionxsvampire
53% · 32 games47% · 23 games
OracleRodjER
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 56%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2