The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Lion
Zayac · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
Tinysignature
Zayac · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 11 games
Razoroften banned
Sancity · 11 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
Techies
Zayac · 11 games
Nemiga Gaming
Crystal Maiden
aik · 15 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 15 games
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 15 games
Rubick
queezy · 14 games
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
Lunasignature
Lukas · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
Techies
aik · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
459 picks · 215 bans
Tiny
446 picks · 715 bans
Centaur Warrunner
417 picks · 589 bans
Gyrocopter
415 picks · 425 bans
Batrider
376 picks · 667 bans
Rubick
365 picks · 168 bans
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 940 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 680 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:18
Natus Vincere 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendYuragi
GyrocopterLukas
Ember SpiritSancity
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Vengeful SpiritNefrit
UnderlordMikSa`
Nyx AssassinZayac
Weaverqueezy
SvenMalady
Clockwerkaik
Game 2prediction correct19:5
Natus Vincere 63%Nemiga Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 23:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterYuragi
Dragon Knightnicky`cool
EnigmaNefrit
WeaverLukas
TimbersawSancity
Dark SeerMikSa`
Vengeful SpiritMalady
Rubickqueezy
Monkey KingZayac
Clockwerkaik
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 74%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2