PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Night Pulseloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 21 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 16 games
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 16 games
Svenoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
Tinysignature
Sancity · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Zayac · 12 games
Night Pulse
Hoodwinkoften banned
JANTER · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 22 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 17 games
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 17 games
Doomoften banned
Kami · 16 games
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 16 games
Phoenixoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
Svensignature
V-Tune · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
431 picks · 364 bans
Hoodwink
418 picks · 458 bans
Weaver
390 picks · 838 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 864 bans
Phoenix
369 picks · 765 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 529 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 509 bans
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 606 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:32
Natus Vincere 53%Night Pulse 47%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 35:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaYuragi
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Queen of PainSancity
DoomKami
UnderlordNefrit
InvokerWorick
RubickZayac
Shadow DemonJANTER
TuskMalady
JakiroHduo
Game 2prediction correct23:11
Natus Vincere 54%Night Pulse 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYuragi
Dragon KnightV-Tune
Earth SpiritSancity
Centaur WarrunnerKami
Sand KingNefrit
LinaWorick
Shadow DemonZayac
RubickJANTER
OmniknightMalady
JakiroHduo
Game 3prediction correct35:20
Natus Vincere 54%Night Pulse 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 49:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYuragi
LinaV-Tune
UnderlordNefrit
DoomKami
TinkerMalady
TimbersawWorick
Void SpiritSancity
HoodwinkJANTER
RubickZayac
OmniknightHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 55%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3