Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Clockwerk
swedenstrong · 12 games
Drow Rangersignature
V-Tune · 10 games
Silencer
Solo · 10 games
Visageoften banned
laise · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 8 games
Leshracoften banned
No[o]ne · 7 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 7 games
Tusk
swedenstrong · 7 games
One Move
Tiny
Gilgir · 22 games
Rubick
Gilgir · 17 games
Mirana
Panto · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 13 games
Tusk
Ainkrad · 13 games
Snapfire
Gilgir · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 12 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panto · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
824 picks · 579 bans
Tiny
600 picks · 410 bans
Treant Protector
521 picks · 546 bans
Tusk
512 picks · 418 bans
Nature's Prophet
484 picks · 788 bans
Death Prophet
436 picks · 901 bans
Snapfire
430 picks · 304 bans
Clockwerk
383 picks · 287 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total53% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:35
Natus Vincere 47%One Move 53%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 43:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerShigetsu
Monkey KingMunkushi~
LycanMalik
Death ProphetAinkrad
Sand Kingmellojul
Primal BeastAfterLife
Snapfirexsvampire
MiranaGilgir
UndyingMalady
DisruptorPanto
Game 2prediction correct7:43
Natus Vincere 48%One Move 52%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 29:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangoliermellojul
Monkey KingMunkushi~
MarciShigetsu
Ember SpiritAinkrad
LycanMalik
Dragon KnightAfterLife
Rubickxsvampire
EnchantressPanto
LichMalady
DisruptorGilgir
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 53%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2