Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 16 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 9 games
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 8 games
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 8 games
Magnussignature
Malik · 7 games
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 6 games
One Move
Disruptor
Xakoda · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 13 games
Rubick
Panto · 12 games
Mirana
Gilgir · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Techies
Gilgir · 11 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 11 games
Batridersignature
Gilgir · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
401 picks · 193 bans
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 459 bans
Techies
277 picks · 241 bans
Undying
277 picks · 462 bans
Batrider
256 picks · 430 bans
Morphling
256 picks · 488 bans
Storm Spirit
242 picks · 432 bans
Timbersaw
234 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total68% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:27
Natus Vincere 60%One Move 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by One Move in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordShigetsu
Phantom Assassinkrylat
BeastmasterMalik
InvokerAinkrad
Void Spiritmellojul
Legion CommanderAfterLife
Earth Spiritxsvampire
WarlockXakoda
JakiroMalady
Treant ProtectorPanto
Game 2prediction correct15:33
Natus Vincere 57%One Move 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 40:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverShigetsu
Queen of PainAinkrad
Primal BeastMalik
Faceless Voidkrylat
Puckmellojul
BeastmasterAfterLife
Rubickxsvampire
Shadow DemonPanto
Elder TitanMalady
WarlockXakoda
Game 3prediction correct41:9
Natus Vincere 60%One Move 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 28:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenShigetsu
Phantom Assassinkrylat
DawnbreakerMalik
Primal BeastAinkrad
Puckmellojul
OmniknightAfterLife
Shadow Shamanxsvampire
GrimstrokePanto
Crystal MaidenMalady
DisruptorXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 68%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3