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CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 20 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
QBFY · 14 games
64%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 10 games
60%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 31 game
35%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 24 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 24 games
46%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 22 games
45%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 20 games
70%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
563 picks · 791 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
451 picks · 322 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
441 picks · 679 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
427 picks · 777 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
406 picks · 875 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
404 picks · 382 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
389 picks · 528 bans
48%
Magnus
Magnus
388 picks · 1073 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:13
Natus Vincere 67%One Move 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 25:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
52% · 246 games51% · 304 games
MorphlingEyesight
Morphling
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
51% · 128 games48% · 113 games
UnderlordChodΣX
Underlord
Phoenix
PhoenixSancity
46% · 312 games51% · 233 games
Monkey KingDifference
Monkey King
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
50% · 187 games48% · 77 games
SilencerBb3px
Silencer
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAri
57% · 48 games48% · 194 games
MarciGilgir
Marci
Game 2prediction correct39:12
Natus Vincere 67%One Move 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
44% · 144 games54% · 280 games
BristlebackEyesight
Bristleback
Magnus
MagnusBOOM
51% · 136 games49% · 198 games
PuckDifference
Puck
Riki
RikiSancity
54% · 43 games56% · 95 games
BrewmasterChodΣX
Brewmaster
Muerta
MuertaAri
45% · 205 games48% · 54 games
RingmasterGilgir
Ringmaster
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
50% · 159 games51% · 60 games
Ancient ApparitionBb3px
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 81%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2