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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Sancity · 15 games
60%
Sven
Sven
Yuragi · 13 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 12 games
42%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 12 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
55%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
36%

Passion UA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 6 games
17%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
Fernans · 5 games
80%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 4 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
yowaai · 4 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
flacko · 4 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
flacko · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
405 picks · 446 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
402 picks · 340 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
383 picks · 824 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 872 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
357 picks · 733 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 511 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
325 picks · 496 bans
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
293 picks · 673 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:26
Natus Vincere 74%Passion UA 26%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Passion UA in 40:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuragi
49% · 125 games52% · 126 games
Troll Warlordyowaai
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
61% · 181 game38% · 61 game
Linaniche
Lina
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMalady
51% · 85 games40% · 129 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
54% · 77 games46% · 97 games
JakiroFernans
Jakiro
Marci
MarciZayac
64% · 92 games44% · 147 games
Clockwerkflacko
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct24:21
Natus Vincere 75%Passion UA 25%
The model gave 75% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuragi
46% · 286 games57% · 135 games
Troll Warlordyowaai
Troll Warlord
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
44% · 83 games54% · 107 games
Monkey Kingniche
Monkey King
Tiny
TinySancity
55% · 415 games50% · 357 games
PangolierBatyuk
Pangolier
Tinker
TinkerMalady
43% · 3 games49% · 323 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickZayac
45% · 424 games53% · 289 games
Batriderflacko
Batrider
Game 3prediction missed22:25
Natus Vincere 74%Passion UA 26%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Passion UA in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaYuragi
50% · 86 games45% · 236 games
Morphlingyowaai
Morphling
Puck
PuckSancity
53% · 209 games53% · 147 games
Leshracniche
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
53% · 337 games49% · 417 games
PangolierBatyuk
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickZayac
48% · 433 games43% · 111 games
JakiroFernans
Jakiro
Marci
MarciMalady
59% · 129 games47% · 283 games
Svenflacko
Sven
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 88%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3