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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 29 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 25 games
60%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 21 game
76%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Zayac · 20 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Kez
Kezsignature
Niku · 18 games
61%

Pipsqueak+4

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ekki · 28 games
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 27 games
56%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Palantimos · 27 games
70%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 24 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 22 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Palantimos · 22 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
aik · 20 games
35%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
594 picks · 365 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
488 picks · 579 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
481 picks · 261 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 386 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
400 picks · 549 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
337 picks · 908 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 838 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
323 picks · 276 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:27
Natus Vincere 74%Pipsqueak+4 26%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 39:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
Underlordpma
46% · 221 game40% · 91 game
LifestealerDarkLord^
Lifestealer
Weaver
Weavergotthejuice
49% · 110 games56% · 113 games
ViperCopy
Viper
Kez
KezNiku
53% · 190 games49% · 259 games
PangolierMalik
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickDaze
50% · 351 game56% · 378 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Oracle
OracleRiddys
36% · 41 game59% · 72 games
Baneaik
Bane
Game 2prediction correct40:21
Natus Vincere 73%Pipsqueak+4 27%
The model gave 73% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangergotthejuice
56% · 316 games48% · 409 games
TinyDarkLord^
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierNiku
50% · 430 games43% · 322 games
Queen of PainCopy
Queen of Pain
Alchemist
Alchemistpma
46% · 94 games51% · 222 games
DoomMalik
Doom
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
53% · 513 games53% · 368 games
Batrideraik
Batrider
Oracle
OracleRiddys
53% · 98 games45% · 130 games
LionEkki
Lion
Game 3prediction missed7:42
Natus Vincere 72%Pipsqueak+4 28%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 37:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursagotthejuice
48% · 197 games49% · 44 games
Drow RangerDarkLord^
Drow Ranger
Invoker
InvokerNiku
49% · 124 games51% · 152 games
DoomMalik
Doom
Rubick
RubickDaze
47% · 329 games53% · 194 games
SlardarCopy
Slardar
Lich
LichRiddys
45% · 89 games54% · 74 games
Treant Protectoraik
Treant Protector
Alchemist
Alchemistpma
54% · 109 games51% · 384 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 87%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3