?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Series 8 · BO5
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 3:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 3:0
РАБОТЯГИloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 16 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 15 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
QBFY · 14 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sancity · 10 games
80%

РАБОТЯГИ

Tusk
Tusksignature
Wein · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
22%
Slardar
Slardar
spirit · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 8 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 7 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mirele · 6 games
67%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mirele · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
571 picks · 799 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
443 picks · 286 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
432 picks · 823 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
410 picks · 632 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
406 picks · 863 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
381 picks · 327 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
378 picks · 989 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 505 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total91% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
Natus Vincere 77%РАБОТЯГИ 23%
The model gave 77% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomYuragi
50% · 163 games42% · 48 games
Wraith Kingssnovv1
Wraith King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
46% · 236 games53% · 285 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Magnus
MagnusBOOM
52% · 220 games53% · 152 games
Tidehunterspirit
Tidehunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
55% · 88 games50% · 156 games
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
50% · 214 games46% · 280 games
MuertaWein
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct29:25
Natus Vincere 76%РАБОТЯГИ 24%
The model gave 76% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuragi
50% · 162 games49% · 193 games
Terrorbladessnovv1
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
50% · 153 games51% · 279 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingSancity
52% · 235 games51% · 228 games
Sand Kingspirit
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
47% · 264 games53% · 406 games
TinyWein
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
50% · 355 games47% · 63 games
Silencerasdekor_r
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct22:7
Natus Vincere 75%РАБОТЯГИ 25%
The model gave 75% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 22:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
50% · 253 games50% · 223 games
Phantom Assassinssnovv1
Phantom Assassin
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYuragi
53% · 87 games49% · 294 games
Ember SpiritMirele
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinySancity
47% · 351 game53% · 131 game
Slardarspirit
Slardar
Warlock
WarlockKaori
52% · 130 games49% · 82 games
Ringmasterasdekor_r
Ringmaster
Windranger
WindrangerAri
48% · 158 games49% · 249 games
TuskWein
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 91%
Series resultNatus Vincere 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3