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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Runa Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
QBFY · 14 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 11 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Sancity · 11 games
64%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 24 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 16 games
69%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 13 games
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 10 games
80%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Alberkaaa · 9 games
67%
Silencer
Silencer
Hduo · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
484 picks · 448 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
480 picks · 564 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
451 picks · 232 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
353 picks · 711 bans
46%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 726 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
312 picks · 491 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
303 picks · 255 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
292 picks · 91 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
Natus Vincere 66%Runa Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYuragi
46% · 109 games51% · 91 game
SvenShigetsu
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
49% · 175 games47% · 98 games
KunkkaAlberkaaa
Kunkka
Axe
AxeBOOM
38% · 12 games52% · 35 games
Rikinicky`cool
Riki
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
57% · 73 games56% · 125 games
Windrangerqueezy
Windranger
Silencer
SilencerKaori
41% · 115 games57% · 135 games
Ancient ApparitionHduo
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct22:7
Natus Vincere 68%Runa Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 25:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomYuragi
49% · 242 games46% · 169 games
MedusaShigetsu
Medusa
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
53% · 111 games48% · 115 games
Weaverqueezy
Weaver
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
47% · 306 games47% · 116 games
KunkkaAlberkaaa
Kunkka
Warlock
WarlockKaori
55% · 130 games45% · 452 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
57% · 131 game58% · 68 games
Naga SirenHduo
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 82%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2