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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 14 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 13 games
38%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 9 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 7 games
29%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Malady · 6 games
33%

SIBE Team

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 5 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 5 games
20%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
erase · 4 games
75%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 4 games
75%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
klassnokruto · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
klassnokruto · 3 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
klassnokruto · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 615 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
594 picks · 516 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
497 picks · 1231 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
494 picks · 958 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
441 picks · 1100 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
429 picks · 883 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
416 picks · 220 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
410 picks · 590 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:27
Natus Vincere 56%SIBE Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 48:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
RikiShigetsu
48% · 54 games52% · 252 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void Spiritmellojul
47% · 128 games53% · 187 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Magnus
MagnusMalik
54% · 80 games57% · 75 games
Bounty Hunterklassnokruto
Bounty Hunter
Rubick
Rubickxsvampire
41% · 245 games48% · 124 games
Pugnay0nd
Pugna
Silencer
SilencerMalady
48% · 131 game
Game 2prediction correct31:16
Natus Vincere 55%SIBE Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerShigetsu
35% · 89 games62% · 75 games
Medusanesfeer
Medusa
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
51% · 43 games59% · 169 games
Batridererase
Batrider
Void Spirit
Void Spiritmellojul
45% · 131 game51% · 121 game
Bloodseekerklassnokruto
Bloodseeker
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritxsvampire
47% · 46 games53% · 87 games
Pugnay0nd
Pugna
Silencer
SilencerMalady
44% · 143 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 63%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2