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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
T1win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
swedenstrong · 16 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 13 games
46%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
No[o]ne · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Solo · 12 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 10 games
30%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 10 games
80%

T1

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
541 picks · 419 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
452 picks · 666 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 745 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
322 picks · 444 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
295 picks · 492 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
285 picks · 361 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
256 picks · 837 bans
52%
Dazzle
Dazzle
249 picks · 157 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:22
Natus Vincere 48%T1 52%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 45:33.
Game 2prediction correct21:35
Natus Vincere 48%T1 52%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 33:59.
Game 3prediction correct15:28
Natus Vincere 48%T1 52%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 36:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 52%
Series resultT1 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3