The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Empirewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Beastmastersignature
GeneRaL · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Iceberg · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 7 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
V-Tune · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 7 games
Chen
RodjER · 6 games
Disruptorsignature
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 6 games
Enigmasignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
Team Empire
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 10 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 9 games
Tusksignature
sayuw · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
450 picks · 194 bans
Mars
392 picks · 590 bans
Puck
391 picks · 893 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 206 bans
Grimstroke
348 picks · 324 bans
Tiny
327 picks · 238 bans
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 397 bans
Ancient Apparition
292 picks · 402 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:15
Natus Vincere 48%Team Empire 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinNo[o]ne
Linakiyotaka
GyrocopterV-Tune
LunaSmiling Knight
TidehunterRAMZES666
MarsPetushara
HoodwinkRodjER
Winter Wyvernsayuw
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
AbaddonVANSKOR
Game 2prediction correct22:33
Natus Vincere 46%Team Empire 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterV-Tune
SpectreSmiling Knight
Death ProphetNo[o]ne
Linakiyotaka
MarsRAMZES666
Dragon KnightPetushara
Shadow DemonRodjER
Hoodwinksayuw
Treant ProtectorSoNNeikO
EnchantressVANSKOR
Game 3prediction correct16:37
Natus Vincere 45%Team Empire 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterV-Tune
SpectreSmiling Knight
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Dragon KnightPetushara
MarsRAMZES666
Invokerkiyotaka
IoSoNNeikO
Hoodwinksayuw
Shadow DemonRodjER
EnchantressVANSKOR
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 57%
Series resultTeam Empire 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3