ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Kleeloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 12 games
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 8 games
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 8 games
Svensignature
Shigetsu · 7 games
Void Spiritsignature
mellojul · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Malik · 6 games
Earth Spiritsignature
xsvampire · 6 games
Team Klee
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
219 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
195 picks · 85 bans
Grimstroke
192 picks · 218 bans
Pangolier
184 picks · 394 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Phoenix
166 picks · 221 bans
Earth Spirit
160 picks · 260 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 71%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:52
Natus Vincere 53%Team Klee 47%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Team Klee in 59:08.
Game 2prediction correct28:11
Natus Vincere 53%Team Klee 47%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 35:45.
Game 3prediction correct46:33
Natus Vincere 53%Team Klee 47%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:19:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 53%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3