The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Clockwerksignature
Solo · 15 games
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
No[o]ne · 12 games
Snapfire
Solo · 12 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 12 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 10 games
Timbersawsignature
laise · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 9 games
Team Secret
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 14 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Resolut1on · 10 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
548 picks · 424 bans
Marci
457 picks · 665 bans
Puck
332 picks · 753 bans
Dawnbreaker
329 picks · 452 bans
Death Prophet
299 picks · 493 bans
Winter Wyvern
291 picks · 361 bans
Batrider
258 picks · 834 bans
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:11
Natus Vincere 46%Team Secret 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerV-Tune
LinaNisha
LeshracNo[o]ne
RazorCrystallis
Marslaise
AxeResolut1on
ZeusSolo
SnapfirePuppey
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Earth SpiritZayac
Game 2prediction correct30:51
Natus Vincere 48%Team Secret 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 53:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Shadow FiendCrystallis
IoV-Tune
KunkkaNisha
Miranalaise
Primal BeastResolut1on
Ogre MagiSolo
EarthshakerZayac
Tinyswedenstrong
UndyingPuppey
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2