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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Tealoss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 18 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Zayac · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 16 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
Copy · 14 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Kaori · 12 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
73%

Team Tea

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 3 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Worick · 3 games
67%
Slardar
Slardar
Cloud · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dEsire · 3 games
33%
Chen
Chenoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Worick · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
423 picks · 393 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
394 picks · 202 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 894 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
317 picks · 361 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 227 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
285 picks · 138 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
275 picks · 672 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
275 picks · 831 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:20
Natus Vincere 72%Team Tea 28%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddongotthejuice
47% · 158 games47% · 191 game
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckNiku
48% · 344 games47% · 175 games
MarciShigetsu
Marci
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
54% · 232 games53% · 194 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Chen
ChenRiddys
58% · 107 games47% · 145 games
SnapfiredEsire
Snapfire
Bane
BaneZayac
49% · 123 games49% · 259 games
WarlockSoNNeikO
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed31:37
Natus Vincere 72%Team Tea 28%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Team Tea in 55:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddongotthejuice
52% · 108 games50% · 124 games
MedusaShigetsu
Medusa
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNiku
56% · 191 game56% · 109 games
Sand KingWorick
Sand King
Underlord
Underlordpma
47% · 59 games50% · 62 games
SlardarCloud
Slardar
Techies
TechiesZayac
34% · 12 games47% · 103 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorRiddys
47% · 187 games47% · 159 games
PugnaSoNNeikO
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct31:15
Natus Vincere 72%Team Tea 28%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svengotthejuice
47% · 140 games40% · 152 games
Queen of PainWorick
Queen of Pain
Marci
Marcipma
48% · 151 game56% · 116 games
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNiku
50% · 237 games49% · 153 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Mirana
MiranaZayac
60% · 45 games56% · 106 games
EnchantressSoNNeikO
Enchantress
Dazzle
DazzleRiddys
49% · 85 games50% · 131 game
SnapfiredEsire
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 85%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3