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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Riddys · 33 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 27 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 23 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 23 games
57%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 21 game
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 20 games
50%

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
y` · 12 games
25%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 9 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 9 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 9 games
78%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
594 picks · 923 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 424 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
478 picks · 519 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
437 picks · 297 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1060 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 580 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 572 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 671 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:25
Natus Vincere 55%Vici Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 51:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
45% · 424 games52% · 356 games
BeastmasterXm
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNiku
46% · 452 games49% · 192 games
Marcishiro
Marci
Mars
Marspma
48% · 418 games50% · 267 games
TimbersawFaith_bian
Timbersaw
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritZayac
54% · 22 games52% · 314 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
49% · 172 games58% · 359 games
Shadow Demony`
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed10:35
Natus Vincere 57%Vici Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezgotthejuice
49% · 80 games61% · 153 games
LeshracXm
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNiku
46% · 286 games51% · 171 game
Marcishiro
Marci
Largo
Largopma
56% · 75 games45% · 152 games
Primal BeastFaith_bian
Primal Beast
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
51% · 317 games48% · 178 games
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritZayac
44% · 16 games46% · 120 games
Dark WillowpLAnet
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct27:28
Natus Vincere 55%Vici Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 57:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
Omniknightgotthejuice
46% · 51 game53% · 113 games
Muertashiro
Muerta
Kez
KezNiku
48% · 116 games51% · 258 games
PuckXm
Puck
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
52% · 227 games54% · 274 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
50% · 379 games48% · 156 games
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
50% · 80 games45% · 52 games
Spirit BreakerpLAnet
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 61%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3