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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 18 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Sven
Sven
Yuragi · 12 games
42%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
36%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
44%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 30 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 20 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sayuw · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 16 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
Noticed · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 834 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
381 picks · 384 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
370 picks · 269 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
357 picks · 755 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
325 picks · 473 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 522 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
316 picks · 651 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
312 picks · 373 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 37%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total58% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Natus Vincere 58%Virtus.pro 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere.
Game 2prediction correct27:9
Natus Vincere 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 22:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSancity
30% · 64 games58% · 166 games
SvenKiritych
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
46% · 90 games63% · 105 games
DoomNoticed
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYuragi
41% · 105 games53% · 13 games
HuskarSquad1x
Huskar
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
41% · 85 games60% · 80 games
ChenRein
Chen
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
46% · 20 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 58%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2