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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vrooomy.ioloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 21 game
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 14 games
64%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 12 games
42%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 12 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
55%

Vrooomy.io

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
414 picks · 350 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 450 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
390 picks · 829 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
379 picks · 871 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
358 picks · 747 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 516 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
330 picks · 501 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 566 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:34
Natus Vincere 80%Vrooomy.io 20%
The model gave 80% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Vrooomy.io in 37:34.
Game 2prediction correct33:20
Natus Vincere 80%Vrooomy.io 20%
The model gave 80% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:34.
Game 3prediction correct28:16
Natus Vincere 80%Vrooomy.io 20%
The model gave 80% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 80%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3