Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 13 games
Spirit Breakersignature
GeneRaL · 13 games
Silencersignature
Solo · 12 games
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 8 games
Weaversignature
ALOHADANCE · 8 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
V-Tune · 7 games
Lion
ALOHADANCE · 6 games
Winstrike Team
Weaversignature
yamich · 20 games
Marssignature
Noticed · 19 games
Void Spirit
mellojul · 16 games
Banesignature
Panto · 14 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 13 games
Jakirosignature
SoNNeikO · 12 games
Ogre Magi
Panto · 12 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
529 picks · 370 bans
Mars
462 picks · 653 bans
Queen of Pain
419 picks · 514 bans
Weaver
412 picks · 857 bans
Snapfire
363 picks · 186 bans
Kunkka
325 picks · 530 bans
Spirit Breaker
323 picks · 505 bans
Disruptor
269 picks · 180 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:2
Natus Vincere 42%Winstrike Team 58%
The model gave 58% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 22:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordV-Tune
UrsaDaxak
InvokerNo[o]ne
Queen of PainLarl
BeastmasterGeneRaL
Night StalkerNoticed
WeaverALOHADANCE
JakiroSoNNeikO
AbaddonSolo
Baneforcemajor
Game 2prediction correct12:30
Natus Vincere 41%Winstrike Team 59%
The model gave 59% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterV-Tune
PuckLarl
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
BristlebackDaxak
BroodmotherGeneRaL
Outworld DestroyerNoticed
AbaddonSolo
ChenSoNNeikO
LionALOHADANCE
Baneforcemajor
Game 3prediction missed33:37
Natus Vincere 42%Winstrike Team 58%
The model gave 58% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 45:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracNo[o]ne
Death ProphetLarl
SvenV-Tune
Wraith KingDaxak
Nature's ProphetGeneRaL
MarsNoticed
TuskALOHADANCE
Dark Willowforcemajor
IoSolo
ClockwerkSoNNeikO
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 64%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3